New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto doubled to center, Castellanos scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Stevenson doubled to right, Realmuto scored and Stott scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Harper homered to right center (386 feet), Turner scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Harper homered to left center (397 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Marte tripled to center, Nimmo scored and Alonso scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Alonso reached on infield single to third, Vientos scored on throwing error by third baseman Clemens, Nimmo safe at third on error.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Marte walked, Iglesias scored, Martinez to second, Alonso to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML NYM +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 50–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–73 | 72–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–47 | 53–61 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 73–72 | 70–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–11 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.