New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh homered to right (352 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Alonso homered to center (393 feet).11–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 8Bader homered to left center (410 feet), Iglesias scored and F. Alvarez scored.10–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 310–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6Lindor doubled to center, Bader scored, Lindor out stretching at third.7–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Nimmo homered to right center (374 feet), Lindor scored and Vientos scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5F. Alvarez homered to left (378 feet), Iglesias scored and Taylor scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML NYM +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–32 | Road vs home | 50–241st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–73 | 72–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–47 | 53–60 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 72–72 | 69–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–11 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.