Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Perkins scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Schwarber singled to left, Stott scored, Realmuto to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Turang singled to left, Ortiz scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Ortiz tripled to center, Frelick scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Marsh homered to left center (377 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–3
- 4Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoskins scored, Frelick to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored and Chourio scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML PHI -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 42–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–76 | 80–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 34–48 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 46–19 |
| Overs–unders | 71–77–1 | 81–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.