Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bauers singled to right, Chourio scored, Adames to second, Contreras to third.1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Hoskins homered to left center (385 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Bohm homered to center (400 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML PHI -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +38 Elo | MIL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 43–305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–77 | 81–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 55–62 | 35–48 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 46–20 |
| Overs–unders | 72–78–1 | 82–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.