Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to left center (405 feet), Walker scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Mitchell homered to center (401 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Marte singled to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moreno scored on fielding error by third baseman Monasterio, Perdomo to second.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -125 / MIL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 43.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −3 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.84th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–35 | Road vs home | 44–304th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–72 | 81–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–43 | 35–49 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 46–20 |
| Overs–unders | 90–61–1 | 82–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–4 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Sep 15MIL 10 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 61%Hit
- Sep 14MIL 15 @ ARI 8Picked ARI 58%Miss
- Sep 13MIL 2 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jun 20ARI 5 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 51%Hit
- Jun 19ARI 9 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss