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Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast

FinalFanDuel SN WI, DBACKS.TV, MLBN, MLB.TV

Away

Diamondbacks

87-68

5–0

at

Home

Brewers

88-67

ARI 51%MIL 49%

You didn't pick this one.

American Family Field · FanDuel SN WI, DBACKS.TV, MLBN, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.

MIL75%50%75%ARIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Ketel MarteBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers
  • Joey OrtizBatting1-3
  • Aaron CivalePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Marte homered to right center (398 feet), Carroll scored.5–0
  • 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
  • 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
  • 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
  • 5Herrera homered to right (374 feet).3–0
  • 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
  • 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
  • 1Pederson homered to center (397 feet), Marte scored.2–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Diamondbacks 51%

Toss-upHit
ARI 51%MIL 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
ARI 51%
ML ARI -115 / MIL -105
Pre-line forecast
ARI 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ARI 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.7 pts
ARI: Elo 47.4%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
ARI -104
MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARIMILWhy
Team rating15391543Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+4−1ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +18 EloMIL 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 51.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastARI 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatMIL
1st of 305.5Runs scored4.87th of 30
27th of 304.9Runs allowed4.04th of 30
5th of 30+0.6Margin+0.83rd of 30
8th of 306–4Last 105–511th of 30
5th of 3044–35Road vs home44–325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksBrewers
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARIMIL
Run line82–7281–71
Last 105–55–5
Favorite35–4335–49
Underdog47–2946–22
Overs–unders91–62–183–69
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 9–4 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.