San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo singled to center, Herrera scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Chapman tripled to right, Conforto scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Conforto homered to right center (430 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Schmitt homered to left (389 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Walker doubled to left, Carroll scored, Pederson to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Chapman homered to center (415 feet), Encarnación scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Encarnación doubled to right, Ramos scored, Encarnación to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pederson doubled to left, Perdomo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML SF +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +69 Elo | ARI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 42–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–76 | 84–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 35–43 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 79–72–1 | 92–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–13 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.