Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers reached on infield single to shortstop, Hoskins scored, Adames to third.9–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–10
- 8Hoskins singled to right, Perkins scored and Mitchell scored.9–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 29–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 19–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–9
- 8Mitchell singled to left, Chourio scored, Perkins to third.9–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 8Grichuk singled to right, Walker scored.9–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Adames hit a ground rule double, Hoskins scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Hoskins doubled to center, Mitchell scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 38–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 6Chourio singled to left, Ortiz scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 4Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML ARI +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +2 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 44–336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–72 | 81–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–43 | 35–50 |
| Underdog | 48–29 | 46–22 |
| Overs–unders | 91–63–1 | 83–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–4 MIL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Sep 21ARI 5 @ MIL 0Picked ARI 51%Hit
- Sep 20ARI 7 @ MIL 4Picked ARI 54%Hit
- Sep 19ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked ARI 53%Hit
- Sep 15MIL 10 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 61%Hit
- Sep 14MIL 15 @ ARI 8Picked ARI 58%Miss
- Sep 13MIL 2 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss