San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schmitt walked, Yastrzemski scored, Wade Jr. to second, Ramos to third.11–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 411–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 311–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 5Fitzgerald homered to left (406 feet), Bailey scored.10–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 4Ramos homered to left center (426 feet).8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 3Wisely homered to right center (394 feet), Bailey scored and McCray scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Conforto homered to left center (425 feet), Ramos scored and Wade Jr. scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Bailey homered to right center (422 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML SF +125 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +48 Elo | ARI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 42–3411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–76 | 84–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 80–72–1 | 93–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–13 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.