St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wisely reached on bunt single to pitcher, Fitzgerald scored on throwing error by pitcher Liberatore, Wisely to second.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Walker singled to left, Donovan scored, Nootbaar to second.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Donovan doubled to center, Burleson scored and Goldschmidt scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Chapman scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Goldschmidt grounded out to third, Winn scored, Burleson to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Schmitt doubled to left, Bailey scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Bailey singled to right, Chapman scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Encarnación reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramos scored on fielding error by shortstop Winn, Wade Jr. to second.1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Wade Jr. singled to left, Canha scored, Ramos to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML STL +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SF: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Tristan Beck: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +10 Elo | SF 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 41–3819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–79 | 78–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 31–49 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 74–83–2 | 83–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–6 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.