St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Jerar EncarnacionBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Nootbaar tripled to center, Burleson scored and Arenado scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Burleson singled to right, Winn scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Winn doubled to left, Siani scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 13 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Nootbaar homered to center (400 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Yastrzemski doubled to right, Wisely scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Encarnación homered to center (430 feet), Conforto scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Arenado singled to left, Winn scored, Burleson to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML STL +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SF: Elo 56.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +46 Elo | SF 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 41–3719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–79 | 78–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 31–48 |
| Underdog | 55–31 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 73–83–2 | 82–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–6 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.