San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson SeymourPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera homered to center (413 feet).8–2
- 7Schmitt singled to left, Lee scored.8–1
- 7Lee tripled to right, Chapman scored.7–1
- 5Scott II singled to center, Crooks scored.6–1
- 4Adames grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramos scored, Devers out at second.6–0
- 4Devers singled to right, Bailey scored, Ramos to third.5–0
- 4Bailey singled to left, Schmitt scored.4–0
- 4Gilbert hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored, Schmitt to third.3–0
- 1Adames homered to center (401 feet).2–0
- 1Devers homered to center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML SF +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- STL: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +5 | SF: Carson Seymour: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 39–3315th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–80 | 67–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–56 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 68–72 | 75–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–6 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.