San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey homered to right (392 feet), Lee scored.7–4
- 7Goodman homered to left (440 feet), Freeman scored.5–4
- 5Goodman singled to left, Ritter scored, Moniak to second.5–2
- 5Flores homered to left (385 feet), Smith scored.5–1
- 5Schmitt homered to left center (392 feet).3–1
- 3Goodman singled to center, Freeman scored, Moniak to third.2–1
- 1Devers homered to right (397 feet), Ramos scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 67%
- ML SF -235 / COL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SF: Elo 66.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −2 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +120 Elo | SF 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 22–4830th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 138130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–80 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–56 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 66–66 |
| Overs–unders | 66–72 | 61–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 25–9 COL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.