San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Dominic SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia singled to left, Estrada scored and McMahon scored, Doyle to second.7–8
- 9Doyle grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hilliard scored, McMahon to second, McMahon safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Schmitt, Estrada to third.7–6
- 7Estrada doubled to left, Hilliard scored and Beck scored.7–5
- 6Moniak homered to left (370 feet).7–3
- 5Smith homered to right (433 feet), Flores scored and Yastrzemski scored.7–2
- 4Ritter singled to left, Doyle scored and Moniak scored, Arcia to third.4–2
- 2Ramos singled to center, Lee scored and Porter scored, Adames to second.4–0
- 2Porter singled to center, Smith scored.2–0
- 2Fitzgerald hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 67%
- ML SF -235 / COL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SF: Elo 66.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +120 Elo | SF 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 6–2730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15171st of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 138630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–28 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 27–35 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37 | 27–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 24–8 COL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.