Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-5
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Fitzgerald scored on Johnson wild pitch.4–5
- 10Fitzgerald scored on Johnson wild pitch.4–5
- 7Olson homered to right (361 feet), Riley scored.4–4
- 5Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Flores scored, Chapman to third.2–4
- 4Harris II singled to center, Ozuna scored on error, Harris II safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Lee, Albies safe at third on error.2–3
- 4Murphy hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.1–3
- 1Flores scored on Schwellenbach wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by Schwellenbach, Adames to third on wild pitch by Schwellenbach.0–3
- 1Flores scored on Schwellenbach wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by Schwellenbach, Adames to third on wild pitch by Schwellenbach.0–3
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.0–2
- 1Flores singled to right, Ramos scored, Lee to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / SF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 48.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +13 Elo | SF 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 19–1110th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–35 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–5 SF in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.