San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis MatosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting5-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Edwards reached on infield single to third, Wagaman scored, Sanoja to second, Hicks to third.4–2
- 6Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez to second.4–1
- 4Matos homered to left center (390 feet), Schmitt scored and Bailey scored.4–0
- 3Flores grounded out to second, Ramos scored, Fitzgerald to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML SF -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 45.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +32 Elo | SF 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 14–1623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 145126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–31 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–7 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.