Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-5
- Max MeyerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill homered to right (369 feet).6–8
- 5Arraez singled to center, Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. to second.6–7
- 4Arraez singled to left, Wade scored, Tatis Jr. to second.6–6
- 3Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored.6–5
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Machado scored, Merrill to third.6–4
- 2Wade reached on infield single to second, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored on throwing error by second baseman Simon, Wade to second.6–3
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to right (339 feet).6–1
- 1Sanoja hit sacrifice fly to right, Simon scored, Mesa Jr. to second.6–0
- 1Mesa Jr. singled to right, Norby scored, Simon to third.5–0
- 1Simon singled to center, Hicks scored, Norby to third.4–0
- 1Norby grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stowers scored, Hicks third.3–0
- 1Hicks singled to left, Wagaman scored, Hicks to second, Stowers to third.2–0
- 1Stowers singled to center, J. Sánchez scored, Wagaman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML MIA +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- SD: Elo 62.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +92 Elo | SD 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 17–87th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 26th of 301450 | Elo rating | 15298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–9 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.