San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to right (352 feet).5–3
- 7Cronenworth homered to right (382 feet).4–3
- 6Sheets homered to right center (423 feet), Arraez scored.3–3
- 5Albies scored on Cease wild pitch.1–3
- 5Albies scored on Cease wild pitch.1–3
- 5Allen hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored, Albies to third.1–2
- 2Albies doubled to center, Riley scored, Albies out stretching at third.1–1
- 1Merrill singled to right, Machado scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML SD +125 / ATL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- SD +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +18 Elo | ATL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149914th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–22 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29 | 20–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 15–7 ATL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.