Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rosario singled to left, Hassell III scored.7–8
- 9Olson doubled to right, Williams scored, Riley thrown out at home.7–7
- 7Ozuna singled to right, Fairchild scored.6–7
- 4García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wood scored, Ruiz out at second.5–7
- 4Ruiz singled to center, Abrams scored, Wood to third.5–6
- 4Verdugo walked, Albies scored, Allen to second, Harris II to third.5–5
- 4Harris II reached on single to shortstop, Olson scored and Ozuna scored, Albies to third.4–5
- 2Wood doubled to right, Abrams scored, Call scored and Tena scored.2–5
- 2Abrams singled to center, Hassell III scored, Tena to second, Call to third.2–2
- 1Ruiz doubled to right, Wood scored, Lowe to third.2–1
- 1Ozuna homered to left (364 feet).2–0
- 1Olson homered to right (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 146424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–26 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–29 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–15 WSH in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 31.