Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies singled to center, Baldwin scored.2–5
- 6White singled to center, Baldwin scored, Albies to third.2–4
- 5Riley singled to right, White scored, Verdugo to third.2–3
- 4Baldwin homered to right (376 feet), Ozuna scored.2–2
- 4Rosario singled to left, Wood scored.2–0
- 1Abrams homered to right center (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML WSH +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- WSH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −7 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 13–68th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 25th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–14 ATL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.