Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Verdugo singled to center, White scored.3–4
- 9Crews reached on infield single to shortstop, Ruiz scored and Nuñez scored on throwing error by shortstop Allen.3–3
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (464 feet).1–3
- 4Wood homered to left (413 feet).1–2
- 3Harris II singled to center, Olson scored, Ozuna to second.0–2
- 3Ozuna singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML WSH +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +86 Elo | ATL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–12 | Road vs home | 12–69th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 25th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–21 | 17–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–13 ATL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.