St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado homered to left center (385 feet), Winn scored.6–1
- 7Scott II singled to center, Herrera scored, Pozo to third.4–1
- 7Pozo singled to center, Arenado scored, Herrera to second.3–1
- 4Lowe homered to left center (382 feet).2–1
- 2Contreras homered to center (406 feet).2–0
- 1Nootbaar homered to right (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML STL +120 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 10–1122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–18 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–5 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.