Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jose BarreroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Barrero hit a ground rule double, Gorman scored and Pagés scored, Scott II to third.3–6
- 6Contreras homered to left (391 feet), Arenado scored.3–4
- 4Frazier singled to center, Bart scored, Valdez to second.3–2
- 3Burleson homered to right center (435 feet).2–2
- 3Barrero homered to left center (385 feet).2–1
- 1Reynolds homered to right (388 feet), Cruz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML PIT +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- STL: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 12–69th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–24 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–13 STL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.