Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch singled to right, Berti scored and Happ scored.8–3
- 9Happ doubled to right, Swanson scored, Berti to third.6–3
- 8Reynolds grounded out to second, Davis scored, Cruz to third.5–3
- 7Suzuki homered to left (400 feet), Happ scored.5–2
- 5Suzuki homered to left (392 feet).3–2
- 5Tucker homered to right center (395 feet).2–2
- 5Swanson homered to center (392 feet).1–2
- 3Cruz doubled to center, Davis scored.0–2
- 1Reynolds homered to right (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML CHC +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +18 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–6 | Road vs home | 7–825th of 30 |
| 1st of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 146824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 11–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–10 PIT in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.