Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCutchen doubled to center, Reynolds scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.3–4
- 5Happ scored on Borucki wild pitch.3–2
- 5Happ scored on Borucki wild pitch.3–2
- 5Tucker grounded out to first, Berti scored, Happ to third.2–2
- 5Happ singled to center, Swanson scored, Berti to second.1–2
- 4Triolo hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored.0–2
- 1Hayes singled to right, Cruz scored, Bart to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML CHC -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +56 Elo | CHC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 3.425th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–5 | Road vs home | 6–827th of 30 |
| 1st of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 146724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 10–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–10 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–9 PIT in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.