Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pages homered to left (377 feet).6–7
- 5Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Swanson scored.5–7
- 5Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Busch scored, Swanson to third.5–6
- 5Swanson singled to center, Tucker scored and Turner scored, Swanson to second, Busch to third.5–5
- 5T. Hernández homered to left center (379 feet), Betts scored.5–3
- 5Betts doubled to left, Rojas scored.3–3
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to left center (367 feet), Swanson scored and Hoerner scored.2–3
- 3T. Hernández singled to left, Barnes scored and Conforto scored, Ohtani to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML LAD +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- LAD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +1 | LAD: Ben Casparius: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15291st of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–12 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–10 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.