Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Jon BertiBatting3-4
- Justin SteelePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Shaw scored, Swanson to third.6–3
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (389 feet).6–2
- 4Happ singled to left, Kelly scored, Berti to second.5–2
- 4E. Hernández homered to left (390 feet), Smith scored.5–1
- 3Tucker walked, Berti scored, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.3–1
- 3Edman homered to left (379 feet).3–0
- 2E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored.2–0
- 2Smith scored on a passed ball by Kelly, Muncy to third on passed ball by Kelly.1–0
- 2Smith scored on a passed ball by Kelly, Muncy to third on passed ball by Kelly.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -150 / CHC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | LAD: Roki Sasaki (no track record yet) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 1st of 301556 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 93–84 | 78–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 79–70 | 27–54 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 51–29 |
| Overs–unders | 103–73–1 | 77–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–7 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.