Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson doubled to center, Alcántara scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 7Realmuto singled to center, Stott scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 6Hoerner homered to left center (362 feet).5–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 5Marsh doubled to center, Castellanos scored, Realmuto scored and Stott scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 5Bellinger singled to left, Swanson scored, I. Paredes to second.4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Clemens homered to center (408 feet).3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 4Hoerner homered to left (345 feet), I. Paredes scored and Bellinger scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Castellanos homered to right center (399 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML CHC +180 / PHI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- CHC +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +10 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–41 | Road vs home | 53–261st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–80 | 77–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–52 | 56–64 |
| Underdog | 51–28 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 76–80–1 | 77–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–8 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.