Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nimmo homered to right (351 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Taylor singled to left, Vientos scored, Taylor to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Bohm singled to right, Turner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / NYM +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 3.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −1 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 45–347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–79 | 77–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 55–62 | 42–49 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79–1 | 79–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–11 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 25.