Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Acuña tripled to right, F. Alvarez scored.6–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Harper doubled to center, Marsh scored and Schwarber scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 7Schwarber grounded into fielder's choice to second, Realmuto scored, Wilson out at second, Marsh to third.4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 4Vientos singled to center, Nimmo scored.3–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Nimmo doubled to right, Iglesias scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 4F. Alvarez homered to left (421 feet), Martinez scored and Taylor scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 4Marsh singled to left, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Nimmo homered to center (396 feet), Iglesias scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Turner homered to left center (436 feet), Schwarber scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Alonso homered to right center (389 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Vientos homered to left (353 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML PHI +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −11 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +14 Elo | NYM 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 43–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–77 | 75–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 55–62 | 40–48 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 72–79–1 | 76–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–9 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.