Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3
- DJ HerzPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Acuña homered to left (386 feet).0–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (419 feet), Iglesias scored and Marte scored.0–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–9
- 4Marte singled to right, Acuña scored and Bader scored, Iglesias to second.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Acuña singled to left, Vientos scored, Bader to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Vientos singled to center, Alonso scored and Taylor scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Taylor doubled to center, Nimmo scored, Alonso to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML WSH +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +70 Elo | NYM 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 42–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–69 | 74–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 39–48 |
| Underdog | 69–49 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 72–78–1 | 75–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–17 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 25.