Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jose IglesiasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Marte singled to left, Bader scored, Taylor to second.1–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Iglesias reached on infield single to second, Taylor scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Tena singled to left, Yepez scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML WSH +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +13 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +81 Elo | NYM 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–42 | Road vs home | 40–3313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–68 | 73–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 38–47 |
| Underdog | 68–48 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 71–77–1 | 74–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–15 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.