Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting3-4
- Mitchell ParkerPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Acuña homered to left center (414 feet).1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 6Alonso homered to left center (375 feet), Acuña scored and Iglesias scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Alonso scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4F. Alvarez homered to left (397 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Vientos hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Alonso reached on infield single to first, Acuña scored and Iglesias scored, Marte to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Acuña doubled to center, Bader scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Wood grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Young scored, Abrams out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML WSH +145 / NYM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +86 Elo | NYM 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 41–3312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–68 | 73–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 38–48 |
| Underdog | 69–48 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 71–78–1 | 74–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–16 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.