Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso singled to center, Iglesias scored, Marte to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Stevenson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Realmuto scored, Stott out at second.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7F. Alvarez doubled to center, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Nimmo singled to left, Marte scored, Alonso to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Castellanos homered to left (377 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Acuña homered to left (388 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2F. Alvarez homered to left (393 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (406 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML PHI +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 44–348th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–78 | 76–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 55–62 | 41–49 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79–1 | 78–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–10 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.