Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mets- Jose IglesiasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto homered to left center (423 feet), Castellanos scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 6Castellanos grounded out to third, Turner scored, Bohm to second.10–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 6Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 4Bohm homered to left center (383 feet), Turner scored and Harper scored.8–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 4Turner singled to right, Rojas scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Rojas doubled, Sosa scored and Wilson scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored, Bohm out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Sosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Nimmo grounded out to second, Marte scored, Vientos to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Iglesias homered to center (411 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML PHI -110 / NYM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +8 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +5 Elo | NYM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 44–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–78 | 76–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 55–62 | 41–48 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 73–79–1 | 77–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–10 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.