Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Caleb KilianPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tauchman grounded out to first, Hoerner scored, Bethancourt to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Hoerner doubled to left, Paredes scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Schwarber grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Marsh scored, Rojas out at second.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Harper scored on fielding error by shortstop Vázquez, Castellanos safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner.0–5
- 5Harper scored on fielding error by shortstop Vázquez, Castellanos safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner.0–5
- 3Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored, Bohm to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Schwarber homered to center (412 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Realmuto homered to center (421 feet), Stott scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML CHC +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- CHC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | CHC: Nate Pearson (no track record yet) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3038–40 | Road vs home | 52–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–79 | 76–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–52 | 55–63 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 74–80–1 | 75–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–7 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.