Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Amaya homered to left (410 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Busch homered to right (393 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Suzuki singled to right, Swanson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Tauchman homered to right (421 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML WSH +170 / CHC -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +82 Elo | CHC 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–47 | Road vs home | 41–3617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–71 | 75–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 25–52 |
| Underdog | 71–51 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 74–80–1 | 74–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–8 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.