Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisdom homered to left center (421 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Gallo homered to right (377 feet), Yepez scored and Tena scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, L. García Jr. scored, Yepez to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Yepez scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML WSH +120 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +76 Elo | CHC 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 41–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–71 | 75–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 25–51 |
| Underdog | 70–51 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79–1 | 74–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–8 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.