Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 4Paredes singled to left, Bellinger scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 3Swanson singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya to second.2–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 3Amaya singled to left, Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.2–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 3Rooker homered to right center (366 feet), Wilson scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 2Swanson homered to left (362 feet), Amaya scored and Happ scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Happ singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Amaya singled to right, Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Paredes singled to left, Suzuki scored, Bellinger to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML OAK +165 / CHC -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -177
- OAK +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +102 Elo | CHC 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3029–46 | Road vs home | 38–3316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–69 | 73–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 23–48 |
| Underdog | 70–55 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 72–77 | 71–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.