Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Kyle McCannBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker singled to right, Bregman scored, Singleton to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Rooker singled to right, Schuemann scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6McCann homered to left center (352 feet), Wilson scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Alvarez scored on error, Diaz safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Schuemann, Diaz safe at second on error.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Bleday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Noda scored on error, Rooker safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Altuve.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Rooker singled to right, Schuemann scored, Noda to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Dubón singled to right, Peña scored, Gamel to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Meyers hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored, Peña to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML OAK +205 / HOU -250
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- OAK +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +116 Elo | HOU 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–43 | Road vs home | 41–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–66 | 71–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 44–58 |
| Underdog | 69–54 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75 | 60–78–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 7–17 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.