Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Altuve doubled to left, Heyward scored.4–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 12Allen bunted into fielder's choice to first, Cameron scored, Schuemann out at second.4–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 12Schuemann sacrificed, Gelof scored, Cameron to second, Cameron safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Neris.3–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Altuve reached on infield single to second, Heyward scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Singleton tripled to center, Gamel scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Gelof homered to left (416 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to left, Rooker scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML OAK +160 / HOU -190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +116 Elo | HOU 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–43 | Road vs home | 41–307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–66 | 71–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 44–57 |
| Underdog | 68–54 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 69–74 | 60–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 6–17 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.