Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Jason HeywardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nevin homered to right center (365 feet).3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Dubón singled to left, Meyers scored and Singleton scored, Heyward to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Meyers doubled to center, Tucker scored, Singleton to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Singleton singled to center, Diaz scored, Tucker to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Rooker homered to center (420 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Cameron singled to center, Wilson scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Heyward homered to right (354 feet), Singleton scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML OAK +215 / HOU -265
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -229
- OAK +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +21 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +131 Elo | HOU 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–43 | Road vs home | 41–3210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–66 | 71–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 44–59 |
| Underdog | 70–54 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 70–75 | 61–78–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 8–17 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.