Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right (366 feet).6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 9Gelof singled to left, Bleday scored, Brown to second, Langeliers thrown out at home.6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Langeliers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Butler scored and Rooker scored, Bleday safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Lopez singled to left, DeLoach scored, Sosa to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Sheets hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Benintendi singled to right, Lopez scored, Robert Jr. to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Rooker singled to right, Schuemann scored and Wilson scored, Butler to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Butler walked, Soderstrom scored, Wilson to second, Schuemann to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 41–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Sheets homered to right (381 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 10–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Lopez singled to center, Sosa scored and Robinson scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 59%
- ML OAK -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- OAK: Elo 60.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OAK -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −22 | OAK: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +73 Elo | OAK 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 27th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 18–5830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–67 | 64–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 70–55 | 58–80 |
| Overs–unders | 71–76 | 67–79–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 7–4 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.