Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soderstrom grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gelof scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Gelof doubled to left, Brown scored, Gelof to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Rooker reached on infield single to third, Nevin scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Butler grounded out to second, Soderstrom scored, Nevin to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Amaya scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second, Amaya to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Swanson reached on infield single to third, Hoerner scored, Amaya to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Soderstrom homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML OAK +150 / CHC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -161
- OAK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +8 | OAK: Brady Basso: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +81 Elo | CHC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3030–47 | Road vs home | 39–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–70 | 74–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 24–49 |
| Underdog | 71–56 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 73–78 | 72–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–4 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.