Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ homered to left (364 feet).4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Langeliers homered to left (418 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Busch singled to right, Bellinger scored, Paredes to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Happ homered to right center (385 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Butler homered to right center (368 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Langeliers homered to center (408 feet), Rooker scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML OAK +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +102 Elo | CHC 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3029–47 | Road vs home | 39–3316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–70 | 74–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 70–56 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 73–77 | 72–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–4 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.