Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes grounded out to third, Swanson scored, Bellinger to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7Bellinger singled to left, Happ scored, Swanson to third.6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 6Gallo homered to right (383 feet), Yepez scored and Baker scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 16–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 5Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored, Suzuki to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Bellinger grounded out to first, Happ scored, Suzuki to second, Swanson to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Suzuki homered to left center (425 feet), Swanson scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Tena singled to center, Wood scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML WSH +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +75 Elo | CHC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 39–3517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–70 | 74–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 24–50 |
| Underdog | 69–50 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 73–78–1 | 73–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.