Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood homered to right (421 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Tauchman singled to right, Hoerner scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Swanson homered to center (389 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML WSH +140 / CHC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −9 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–46 | Road vs home | 40–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–70 | 74–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 24–51 |
| Underdog | 70–50 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 74–78–1 | 74–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.