Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to center (400 feet), Rojas scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 6I. Paredes grounded out to shortstop, Bellinger scored.10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 6Bellinger tripled to right, Amaya scored, Swanson scored and Suzuki scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 39–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 29–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 19–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 2Stubbs reached on bunt single to first, Castellanos scored.6–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 2Bellinger singled to left, Suzuki scored, Bellinger to second.6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Suzuki singled to left, Amaya scored and Happ scored, Suzuki to second.5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Swanson grounded out to second, Crow-Armstrong scored, Happ to second, Amaya to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Happ walked, Hoerner scored, Amaya to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 42–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML CHC -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Tanner Banks: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 53–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–80 | 77–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–52 | 56–63 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 75–80–1 | 76–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–8 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.