New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stanton singled to left, Soto scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Freeman homered to right center (401 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3T. Hernández homered to right center (392 feet), Betts scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Soto homered to right (386 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Edman homered to left (355 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML NYY +110 / LAD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–80 | 90–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 59–73 | 78–70 |
| Underdog | 29–7 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 93–74–1 | 101–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.