New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres singled to center, Volpe scored, Verdugo to second.8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Berti scored on error, Verdugo safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio, Volpe safe at third on error.7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Fry reached on infield single to pitcher, Bo Naylor scored on error, Fry safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Leiter Jr..6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7J. Naylor doubled to right, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Ramírez doubled to right, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Stanton homered to left center (404 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 3J. Naylor singled to left, Kwan scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Wells homered to center (407 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Soto homered to center (414 feet), Torres scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −7 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 50–303rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–79 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 57–73 | 46–53 |
| Underdog | 29–6 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders | 91–73–1 | 79–87–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–5 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit
- Oct 15CLE 3 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 14CLE 2 @ NYY 5PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Aug 22CLE 0 @ NYY 6Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Aug 21CLE 1 @ NYY 8Picked NYY 65%Hit
- Aug 20CLE 9 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 57%Miss
- Apr 14NYY 7 @ CLE 8Picked NYY 54%Miss
- Apr 13NYY 8 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 50%Miss